Bitcoin to Face Short-Term Pressure Amid Tightening Liquidity, According to Hilbert Group CIO

A sharp decline in global liquidity is forecasted by Russell Thompson, CIO of Hilbert Group, who believes that even a swift resolution to the Iran geopolitical situation may not sustain a rally in risk assets without policy intervention. Following the implementation of the reserve maturity program, liquidity conditions have stabilized in certain areas of the financial sector, but Thompson anticipates a broader tightening of 20-25%, which could hinder bitcoin's performance in the near term. Thompson expects US policymakers to respond with measures such as reforming the supplementary leverage ratio, reducing the Treasury General Account, and implementing rate cuts under a potential new Fed chair. Bitcoin has experienced significant volatility over the past six months, shifting from a state of exuberance to a more fragile market driven by macro factors. After reaching an all-time high above $126,000 in October 2025, bitcoin entered a sustained decline, falling to around $63,000 by February 2026. Currently, bitcoin is trading around $75,600, significantly off its peak but no longer in freefall. The last six months have seen a full cycle, from peak euphoria to a deep correction, and now a tentative stabilization phase, driven by macro liquidity, policy expectations, and investor positioning. Advances in crypto regulation could also provide support, with Thompson anticipating legal clarity on key measures before the summer recess and a faster-than-expected expansion of the Fed's balance sheet as disinflationary pressures build. Higher oil prices could ultimately weigh on growth, while a softening labor market and emerging stress in private credit may add to the disinflationary backdrop. Thompson believes that markets are overly focused on the Federal Reserve as the primary source of liquidity, but the US Treasury has significant capacity to inject funds into both the real economy and financial markets. As a result, Thompson expects short-term pressure on bitcoin, but improving conditions over the medium term, with bitcoin potentially reaching significantly higher levels by year-end as liquidity dynamics evolve.