Bitcoin's Uptrend Faces Headwinds from Pentagon's Inflation Warning

As bitcoin appeared poised to break through the $80,000 threshold, macroeconomic uncertainty has reemerged as a challenge. The Pentagon has warned U.S. lawmakers that clearing mines in the Strait of Hormuz could take at least six months, potentially keeping oil and gasoline prices high until the midterm elections. This could lead to persistent inflation, limiting the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates and negatively impacting risk assets like bitcoin. Rising energy costs may also reduce investor appetite for speculative assets. Markets are already reflecting these risks, with WTI crude climbing to around $95 and government bond yields rising. While U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs continue to attract demand, some analysts are cautious, noting that the rally lacks broad support in the spot market and may be driven by demand in the perpetual futures market. The market capitalization of the largest dollar-pegged stablecoin, USDT, has reached a record high, and speculation in non-serious tokens is increasing. The ratio of bitcoin's price to gold has been rising, with the 50-day moving average potentially crossing above the 100-day moving average, indicating a bullish shift in momentum.