A historic stock market debut is imminent, with SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) expected to take place in June, drawing interest from the same liquidity pool as crypto. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming for a $75 billion capital raise at a $1.75 trillion valuation.
If successful, this would be the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019. OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with valuations nearing $1 trillion and potentially raising over $60 billion, respectively.
The combined capital raised by these three companies could exceed $240 billion, a figure that surpasses every venture-backed US IPO since 2000, according to PitchBook estimates. This massive influx of capital could lead to a rotation out of equities and into these new listings, potentially triggering a bearish trend in the market. The impact on crypto could be significant, as bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies have traded with tightening correlation to the Nasdaq and S&P 500 over the past two cycles. When speculative capital leaves equities for an IPO allocation, some of that capital may not be available to bid up higher-beta assets like crypto.
The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in 2021 is a point of concern, as it marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, followed by a 50% drawdown within six weeks. SpaceX's IPO has two features that connect directly to crypto flows: the 30% retail allocation, which could divert funds away from crypto, and the company's material bitcoin position, disclosed under the new fair-value accounting rules. The testable signal going forward is whether crypto can hold up through the roadshow window in May and June or will begin to drift lower as allocators free up room for the SpaceX subscription.
A bitcoin rally that extends through the roadshow could suggest that crypto has decoupled from broader risk-on flows.