A historic stock market debut is imminent, with SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) anticipated to take place in June, drawing interest from the same liquidity pool as crypto. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming for a $75 billion capital raise at a valuation of $1.75 trillion. If successful, this would be the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019.
OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with estimated valuations of nearly $1 trillion and over $60 billion, respectively. The combined capital raised by these three companies could exceed $240 billion from June to the end of the year, a figure that surpasses the total venture-backed US IPOs since 2000.
This massive influx of capital could lead to a rotation out of equities and into these new listings, potentially causing a bearish trend in the market. The impact on crypto is a concern, as bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies have traded in tandem with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 in recent cycles.
When speculative capital leaves equities for IPO allocations, some of that capital may also leave the crypto market, potentially causing a decline in value. Historical parallels, such as the Coinbase listing in 2021, suggest that institutional milestones can mark the beginning of a downturn rather than an upswing. The SpaceX IPO has two key features that connect directly to crypto flows: a 30% retail allocation, which could divert funds away from crypto, and the company's disclosed bitcoin position, worth approximately $600 million.
The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether crypto can hold up against the impending IPOs or if it will begin to drift lower as allocators free up room for the SpaceX subscription.