A historic stock market debut is imminent, and its impact on the crypto market is a topic of interest. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion.
If successful, this would be the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019. This massive capital raise, combined with the upcoming IPOs of OpenAI and Anthropic, is expected to exceed $240 billion from June through year-end, a figure that surpasses every venture-backed US IPO since 2000.
The crypto market, which shares the same liquidity pool as tech and AI equities, may be affected by this significant capital pull. As a result, some investors are becoming bearish on equities, anticipating a rotation out of the market after the SpaceX IPO. The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, is a point of concern. However, the 30% retail allocation in SpaceX's IPO, roughly $22 billion, may not directly impact crypto flows, as it is money that would not have been invested in cryptocurrencies anyway.
Additionally, SpaceX's material bitcoin position, worth approximately $600 million, makes its IPO the first public-market debut of a company with a disclosed bitcoin position under the new fair-value accounting rules. The impact of the SpaceX IPO on the crypto market will be closely watched, particularly during the roadshow window in May and June, to determine whether crypto can hold up or will begin to drift lower as allocators free up room for the SpaceX subscription.