The highly anticipated SpaceX IPO, slated for June, is poised to make history as one of the largest stock-market debuts ever, with a targeted $75 billion capital raise at a valuation of $1.75 trillion. This massive influx of capital may divert attention and funds away from crypto, as it draws from the same liquidity pool. SpaceX is not alone, as OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with the three companies potentially raising over $240 billion by the end of the year.
This substantial capital pull could lead to a rotation out of equities, including crypto, as investors allocate their funds to these new listings. The correlation between crypto and tech equities has been tightening over the past two cycles, and the historical parallel with Coinbase's 2021 listing raises concerns that the SpaceX IPO could mark a top for crypto rather than a starting point. With a 30% retail allocation and a material bitcoin position, the SpaceX IPO has significant implications for crypto flows, making it a testable signal for whether crypto can decouple from broader risk-on flows.