A historic stock market debut is approaching, with SpaceX's $75 billion IPO set to take place in June, drawing interest from the same liquidity pool as crypto. SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are poised to raise over $240 billion combined from June through the end of the year, a capital pull that exceeds the total venture-backed US IPOs since 2000.
This massive capital influx may lead to a rotation out of equities, potentially affecting crypto markets. The correlation between crypto and tech equities has tightened over the past two cycles, with bitcoin and other majors trading in tandem with the Nasdaq and S&P 500. As speculative capital leaves equities for IPO allocations, some of the same capital that would have bid up crypto may be redirected. Historical parallels, such as Coinbase's IPO in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, suggest that institutional milestones can mark tops rather than starting lines.
SpaceX's IPO, with a 30% retail allocation and a material bitcoin position, may have a direct impact on crypto flows. The testable signal going forward is whether crypto holds up through the roadshow window or begins to drift lower as allocators free up room for the SpaceX subscription.