Bitcoin has maintained its position above $77,000, following a notable surge to its highest level since early February. This upward trend has positioned the cryptocurrency for its most substantial monthly gain in a year, with a 13.6% increase in April, according to data from CoinGlass. The recovery comes after a challenging period, marked by the longest losing streak in crypto markets since 2018, with consecutive monthly declines from October to February. The improvement in the broader macroeconomic landscape, including a strong rebound in U.S.
equities with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching record highs, has contributed to this turnaround. Additionally, the growth of Tether's USDT, the largest stablecoin, to nearly $150 billion, with an increase of approximately $5 billion over the past two weeks, is a significant factor. This expansion in stablecoin supply acts as a liquidity boost in crypto markets, often interpreted as a signal of capital inflow and a positive indicator for asset prices.
However, geopolitical uncertainties, particularly the Iran war, continue to impact oil prices. Despite these concerns, markets appear to be shifting focus away from these tensions, with Jasper de Maere, an OTC trader at Wintermute, observing that equities and crypto markets seem to have become less responsive to detailed headlines about the conflict. De Maere attributes this to market fatigue and potential complacency, as strong corporate earnings and resilient equity markets offset worries about higher energy costs and geopolitical risks.
The upcoming FOMC meeting will be a crucial test for the current rally. According to Adam Haeems, head of asset management at Tesseract Group, the ability of bitcoin to break through the $79,000 level will depend on the drivers of the move and the participants involved.
A breakout supported by sustained institutional demand could mark a significant and durable shift, while a move driven primarily by short covering may fade once momentum cools. The continuation of ETF inflows through the April Fed meeting will be critical in determining whether the current rally holds, potentially turning $79,000 from a resistance level into a support level and opening the door for a higher trading range.