Bitcoin has maintained its position above $77,000, following a significant surge earlier in the week to its highest level since February. This upward trend puts the cryptocurrency on track for a 13.6% gain in April, its best monthly performance in a year, according to data from CoinGlass. The recovery comes after a challenging period for crypto markets, which experienced their longest losing streak since 2018 from October to February. The improvement in the broader macroeconomic landscape, including a strong rebound in U.S.
equities with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching record highs, has contributed to the turnaround. Additionally, the growth of Tether's USDT, the largest stablecoin, to nearly $150 billion, with an increase of about $5 billion over the past two weeks, is seen as a crypto-specific factor driving the move. This expansion of stablecoin supply acts as a liquidity injection into crypto markets, often interpreted as a signal of capital flowing into the crypto market, which can be positive for asset prices. However, geopolitical tensions and uncertainty surrounding the Iran conflict continue to affect oil prices.
According to Jasper de Maere, an OTC trader at Wintermute, markets seem to be overlooking these geopolitical risks for now, focusing instead on strong corporate earnings and the resilience of equity markets. De Maere notes that this could indicate a level of fatigue and complacency.
The ability of bitcoin to break through the $79,000 level, which has proven to be a significant cap, will depend on the drivers of the move and the participants involved. A breakout driven by sustained institutional demand could mark a more durable shift, whereas a move primarily driven by short covering may fade once momentum cools. The upcoming April Fed meeting will be a crucial test for the current rally, with the continuation of ETF inflows potentially turning the $79,000 level from resistance to support, paving the way for a higher trading range.