The recent price surge of Bitcoin, which peaked at $77,647.11, is losing momentum as the impact of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire headlines starts to wane. After briefly surpassing $76,000, the cryptocurrency's price fell back, mirroring the choppy pattern observed on Tuesday. This stall follows a 10% increase primarily driven by the news of the ceasefire between the U.S.
and Iran from the previous week. Despite ongoing optimism, with President Donald Trump suggesting the conflict is nearing its end, progress in negotiations to restore oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remains limited. Markets are now seeking substantial progress, such as the restoration of energy flows and a reduction in crude oil premia, to alleviate war-driven stress across the global economy.
According to QCP Capital, one of the world's largest digital asset market makers, 'A ceasefire extension alone is no longer sufficient; markets require tangible progress.' Traders are advised to monitor oil prices closely, as signs of normalization are likely to emerge in energy markets first. The decline in Bitcoin and Ether's 30-day implied volatility indexes suggests traders anticipate significant progress soon.
Meanwhile, Solana (SOL) and DOGE may experience increased volatility due to the surge in open futures contracts tied to these tokens. Alex Kuptsikevich, FxPro's chief market analyst, noted that Solana has outperformed the market over the last day but has failed to consolidate above the $105 level.
In traditional markets, the MOVE index has declined to 65%, reversing the war-led spike to 115% in March, which is bullish for risk assets. The chart of Bitcoin's hourly price action since March 31 highlights a steady upward trajectory, but the failure to produce a decisive breakout above $76,000 indicates a developing double-top pattern, signaling potential exhaustion in bullish momentum.