Crypto Market Outlook: Iran-US Ceasefire and Tesla Earnings

The crypto market enters the new week on uncertain ground after a rally on Friday. The initial announcement of the Strait of Hormuz reopening led to a decline in oil prices and an increase in risk assets, including bitcoin and the broader crypto market. However, the situation escalated over the weekend with Iran firing at ships and the US seizing an Iranian tanker, reversing the initial gains. As the ceasefire is set to expire, traders are cautious about the potential impact of a renewed energy crisis on the risk-on rotation. A crucial technical level to watch is whether bitcoin can hold its ETF cost basis near $74,000. According to Luke Nolan, a senior research associate at CoinShares, a decisive hold above this level, combined with a fourth consecutive day of positive ETF inflows, would support the rotation thesis. Nolan noted, 'The reopening of Hormuz led to a decline in oil prices and an upswing in equities, which in turn pulled crypto higher. The next step hinges on BTC's ability to hold above its ETF cost basis, around $74,000, confirming the risk-on rotation evident in flows.' A break below $74,000 would likely introduce volatility into the sector. Key events to watch include token events and conferences, all listed in ET.