Bitcoin's apparent momentum towards breaking the $80,000 barrier has been hindered by renewed macroeconomic uncertainty. A recent classified briefing by the Pentagon to U.S.
lawmakers highlighted the potential for prolonged high energy costs due to the Iran conflict, which could keep inflation elevated and limit the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates. This has negative implications for risk assets like bitcoin, which is sensitive to interest rates and global liquidity.
Rising fuel and food costs could also deter investors from allocating capital to speculative assets. Markets are already reflecting these risks, with WTI crude prices increasing to around $95 and government bond yields rising. Despite sustained demand for U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs, some analysts are cautious, citing the rally's lack of broad-based support in the spot market and the potential for a correction if traders take profits while spot demand continues to contract.
The market capitalization of the largest dollar-pegged stablecoin, USDT, has reached a record high, while speculation in non-serious tokens is growing. The ratio of bitcoin's price to gold has been rising and may soon confirm a bullish crossover, suggesting continued outperformance of bitcoin relative to gold.