The recent surge in Bitcoin's price, driven by the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, is starting to lose momentum as investors await concrete results. After briefly surpassing $76,000, the cryptocurrency's price has fallen back, reflecting a choppy pattern. This comes after a 10% increase, primarily fueled by the ceasefire news from the previous week. Despite ongoing optimism and President Donald Trump's suggestion that the conflict is nearing its end, progress in restoring oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remains limited.
QCP Capital notes that a ceasefire extension alone is insufficient, and markets require tangible progress, such as restored energy flows and clearer disinflation. Traders should monitor oil prices, as signs of normalization are likely to emerge in energy markets first.
The decline in Bitcoin and Ether's 30-day implied volatility indexes suggests traders expect significant progress soon. Meanwhile, Solana and DOGE may experience increased volatility due to rising demand for leveraged exposure. Alex Kuptsikevich, FxPro's chief market analyst, states that Solana has outperformed the market but needs to consolidate above $105 to signal a return above the 200-week moving average.
The MOVE index, which measures U.S. Treasury note volatility, has declined to 65%, reversing the war-led spike to 115% in March, which is bullish for risk assets.
The chart shows Bitcoin's hourly price action, highlighting a steady upward trajectory with consistently higher lows, but also indicating a potential double-top pattern, signaling exhaustion in bullish momentum. If the price dips below $73,300, the double top pattern would be confirmed, suggesting a potential decline to $70,000. Conversely, a sustained move above $76,000 could strengthen the case for a rally to $88,000.