Charles Hoskinson Claims Bitcoin's Quantum Solution is a Hard Fork, Ineffective in Saving Early Coins

Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson has expressed concerns over Bitcoin's proposed defense against quantum attacks, suggesting it is technically flawed and incapable of protecting the network's earliest coins, including those attributed to Satoshi Nakamoto. Hoskinson's criticism centers around BIP-361, a proposal aimed at phasing out quantum-vulnerable bitcoin addresses. He argues that the proposal, presented as a soft fork, would functionally require a hard fork due to its impact on existing signature schemes. According to Hoskinson, the distinction between a soft fork and a hard fork is crucial, as the latter would necessitate a fundamental change to the network's rules, potentially leading to a network split unless all users upgrade. The BIP-361 proposal suggests that users with frozen quantum-vulnerable funds could reclaim them by constructing a zero-knowledge proof tied to their BIP-39 seed phrase. However, Hoskinson claims this approach is insufficient, as it cannot rescue approximately 1.7 million bitcoin that predate BIP-39's introduction in 2013, including the roughly 1 million coins associated with Satoshi's early mining activity. These early coins were generated using a different key derivation method, which relied on a local key pool rather than a deterministic seed, making it impossible for their owners to provide the necessary cryptographic proof for migration. Jameson Lopp, the core developer who co-authored BIP-361, has acknowledged that the proposal is not ideal and hopes it will never be adopted. Lopp estimates that freezing dormant coins would be preferable to allowing a future quantum attacker to recover and dump them on the market. Hoskinson's critique extends beyond the technical details, arguing that Bitcoin's lack of formal on-chain governance hinders the network's ability to resolve tradeoffs through a structured process, forcing contentious upgrades to be negotiated through developer mailing lists and social pressure.