The recent surge in Bitcoin's price, driven by the US-Iran ceasefire, is losing steam as investors seek concrete results that could alleviate war-induced economic stress. After briefly surpassing $76,000, the cryptocurrency's price retreated, mirroring the choppy pattern seen on Tuesday, following a 10% increase primarily fueled by the ceasefire news. With President Donald Trump suggesting the conflict is nearing its end, optimism persists, yet progress in restoring oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remains limited. According to QCP Capital, one of the world's largest digital asset market makers, 'a ceasefire extension alone is no longer sufficient; markets require tangible progress, such as restored energy flows and clearer disinflation.' Traders should monitor oil prices closely, as signs of normalization are likely to emerge in energy markets first.
The decline in Bitcoin and Ether's 30-day implied volatility indexes suggests traders anticipate significant progress soon. Meanwhile, Solana (SOL) and DOGE may experience increased volatility due to rising demand for leveraged exposure, as evidenced by multiweek highs in open futures contracts tied to these tokens. Alex Kuptsikevich, FxPro's chief market analyst, notes that Solana has significantly outperformed the market over the last day but has failed to consolidate above the $105 level, a crucial long-term support line.
The MOVE index, which measures volatility in US Treasury notes, has declined to 65%, reversing the war-led spike to 115% in March, which is bullish for risk assets. For more analysis, see Crypto Markets Today and CoinDesk's Crypto Week Ahead.