The recent surge in Bitcoin's price, driven by the US-Iran ceasefire, is losing steam as investors seek concrete evidence of progress. After briefly surpassing $76,000, the cryptocurrency's price has retreated, mirroring the choppy pattern seen on Tuesday. This stall follows a 10% increase, primarily fueled by the ceasefire announcement. Despite ongoing optimism and President Donald Trump's suggestion that the conflict is nearing its end, meaningful advancements in restoring oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain elusive.
QCP Capital notes that a ceasefire extension alone is insufficient; the market demands tangible progress, such as the resumption of energy flows and decreased crude premia. Traders should monitor oil prices, as signs of normalization will likely be evident in energy markets first. The decline in Bitcoin and Ether's 30-day implied volatility indexes suggests traders expect substantial progress soon. Meanwhile, Solana and DOGE may experience increased volatility due to rising demand for leveraged exposure.
According to Alex Kuptsikevich, Solana's failure to consolidate above the $105 level has prevented a bullish victory. In traditional markets, the decline in the MOVE index, which measures US Treasury note volatility, has reversed the war-led spike, which is bullish for risk assets.
The chart shows Bitcoin's hourly price action, highlighting a steady upward trajectory with consistently higher lows, but also a developing double-top pattern, indicating potential exhaustion in bullish momentum.