Bitcoin is currently trading with a positive trend above the $75,000 threshold, a level previously identified by CoinDesk as crucial for bulls to maintain their grip on the market. However, some analysts are advising caution, noting that prices must remain above this level through Wednesday, when the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is scheduled to end. Analysts at Marex pointed out that the market is pricing in two possible paths - extension and de-escalation versus renewed escalation and oil stress - which could lead to significant price swings. An escalation could push oil prices above $119, potentially causing Asian and global equity markets to decline sharply.
It remains to be seen whether bitcoin will remain resilient or come under pressure along with the broader market, as it did during the March conflict. As of now, no Iranian delegation has departed for talks in Pakistan, and President Donald Trump has warned of a major escalation if the ceasefire ends without a deal. Additionally, Kevin Warsh's nomination hearing for Federal Reserve chair is scheduled for Tuesday, and his remarks could act as a near-term catalyst, particularly if they reinforce expectations of policy easing.
Major cryptocurrencies such as ether, solana, and XRP have risen by less than 2% over the past 24 hours, underperforming bitcoin. However, smaller tokens such as XLM and TON have risen by more than 5% each, and the CoinDesk Memecoin Index is up over 3%. The DeFi Select Index added 2%, despite the industry-wide fallout from the weekend hack of KelpDAO, which saw the attacker drain rsETH, a liquid restaking token widely used as collateral on several DeFi platforms.
Decentralized lender Aave has taken the biggest hit, with the total value of crypto assets locked on its platform falling to $16 billion, down nearly $10 billion since before the hack. Aave's native token, AAVE, has declined 18% to $93 since the hack, and open interest in futures tied to the token has hit a record high of 3.59 million tokens, indicating potential for more volatility ahead.