As bitcoin appeared poised to break through the $80,000 barrier, macroeconomic uncertainty has reemerged as a significant obstacle. A recent classified briefing by the Pentagon to U.S.
lawmakers highlighted the potential for prolonged high energy costs, which could keep inflation elevated and limit the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates. This, in turn, could negatively impact risk assets, including bitcoin, which is highly sensitive to interest rates and global liquidity conditions. Rising costs for essential items like fuel and food may also reduce investors' appetite for speculative assets.
Market trends, such as the increase in WTI crude prices and government bond yields, are already reflecting these risks. While U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs continue to show sustained demand, some analysts are advising caution, citing the lack of broad-based support in the spot market and the potential for a correction if traders start taking profits.