The recent surge in Bitcoin's price, driven by the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, is starting to lose momentum as investors seek concrete results. The cryptocurrency's price briefly exceeded $76,000 before retreating, mirroring the choppy pattern observed on Tuesday. This stall follows a 10% increase primarily fueled by the ceasefire announcement.
Despite ongoing optimism and President Trump's suggestion that the conflict is nearing its end, progress in restoring oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remains limited. According to QCP Capital, a leading digital asset market maker, 'a ceasefire extension alone is no longer sufficient; markets require tangible progress such as restored energy flows and clearer disinflation.' Traders should closely monitor oil prices, as signs of normalization are likely to emerge in energy markets first.
The decline in Bitcoin and Ether's 30-day implied volatility indexes indicates that traders anticipate significant progress soon. Meanwhile, Solana and DOGE may experience increased volatility due to rising demand for leveraged exposure.
Alex Kuptsikevich, FxPro's chief market analyst, noted that Solana has significantly outperformed the market but needs to consolidate above $105 to signal a bull victory. The MOVE index, which measures U.S. Treasury note volatility, has decreased to 65%, reversing the war-led spike to 115% in March, which is bullish for risk assets.
In technical analysis, Bitcoin's hourly price action since March 31 reveals a steady upward trajectory, but the failure to produce a decisive breakout above $76,000 may indicate a developing double-top pattern, signaling potential exhaustion in bullish momentum.