Bitcoin's apparent momentum towards breaking through the $80,000 threshold has been countered by renewed macroeconomic uncertainty. A significant development emerged from a classified Pentagon briefing to U.S. lawmakers, indicating that clearing mines in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil passage, could take a minimum of six months, with the process commencing only after the resolution of the U.S.-Iran conflict.

The briefing, as reported by the Washington Post, also cautioned that gasoline and oil prices may remain elevated through the midterm elections. This persistent inflation could restrict the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates, creating a challenging environment for risk assets like bitcoin, which is highly sensitive to interest rates and global liquidity. The rising costs of essential items such as fuel and food may also deter investors from allocating capital to speculative assets. These risks are manifesting in markets, with WTI crude rising to around $95 from $79 late last week, and government bond yields increasing across major economies.

The U.S. 10-year yield has risen by eight basis points to 4.32% this week, while its U.K. counterpart has increased by 18 basis points to 4.96%. According to Michael Kramer, founder and CEO of Mott Capital Management, "Oil prices are rising alongside yields and widening volatility spreads, signaling tighter financial conditions and increasing market risks." Despite these challenges, U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs continue to show sustained demand, with the fastest inflows in a month based on the seven-day moving average of net flows tracked by Glassnode.

However, some analysts urge caution, suggesting the rally lacks broad support in the spot market. Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, noted, "The recent Bitcoin price increase is completely driven by demand in the perpetual futures market.

Meanwhile, spot demand is still contracting (although at a slower pace)." The market capitalization of USDT, the largest dollar-pegged stablecoin, has reached a record high of $188.88 billion, while speculation in non-serious tokens is intensifying, with overcrowding in bullish bets. The ratio of bitcoin's price to gold has been steadily rising, topping the 100-day average, with the 50-day average potentially moving above the 100-day average, suggesting a bullish shift in momentum.