Bitcoin's apparent momentum towards a breakthrough above $80,000 has been hindered by renewed macroeconomic uncertainty. A classified briefing by the Pentagon to US lawmakers revealed that clearing mines in the Strait of Hormuz could take at least six months, potentially keeping gasoline and oil prices elevated until the US-Iran conflict is resolved, as reported by the Washington Post. This could lead to persistent inflation, limiting the Federal Reserve's ability to reduce interest rates and creating a challenging environment for risk assets like bitcoin, which is highly sensitive to interest rates and global liquidity.
Rising costs of essential items may also deter investors from allocating capital to speculative assets. Market indicators such as WTI crude and government bond yields are already reflecting these risks.
Despite sustained demand for US-listed spot bitcoin ETFs, some analysts caution that the rally lacks broad support in the spot market, warning of potential correction risks if traders start taking profits while spot demand continues to contract.