A New Strategy for Bitcoin: Waiting for a Quantum Attack to Unfold

The Bitcoin community is considering a drastic shift in its approach to addressing potential quantum computing threats. Instead of proactively freezing vulnerable coins, the new proposal suggests waiting for an actual attack to occur. However, this plan relies on the assumption that the attacker will choose to reveal their capabilities in exchange for a bounty, rather than exploiting the vulnerability for personal gain. The 'canary' system, proposed by BitMEX Research, involves placing a small amount of bitcoin in a special address that can only be accessed by a quantum-capable attacker. If the attacker unlocks the address, it will trigger a network-wide freeze on older wallets. This approach is designed to provide an alternative to the controversial BIP-361 proposal, which suggests imposing restrictions on a fixed five-year timeline, regardless of whether quantum computers pose an actual threat. Critics of BIP-361 argue that it undermines Bitcoin's core principle of giving control to private key holders. The proposed system includes a financial incentive, allowing users to contribute to a bounty that will be awarded to the first entity to demonstrate a quantum attack. This bounty is designed to encourage the attacker to reveal their capabilities, rather than exploiting the vulnerability for personal gain. A 'safety window' has also been introduced, which would make it more difficult for attackers to launch stealth attacks. If the canary is triggered during this window, vulnerable coins would be frozen retroactively, increasing the risk for any potential attacker. However, this plan is not without its risks, as it relies on the assumption that the first entity capable of breaking Bitcoin's security will choose to claim the bounty, rather than executing a large-scale theft. This assumption goes against the worst-case scenario that Bitcoin's design has always tried to prevent, and the network has historically been resistant to intervening in such events after they have occurred.