The recent surge in Bitcoin's price, driven by the US-Iran ceasefire, is losing momentum as investors seek concrete results. The cryptocurrency's price briefly exceeded $76,000 before falling back, repeating the choppy pattern from Tuesday.
This stall follows a 10% increase, primarily fueled by the ceasefire news from last week. Despite ongoing optimism and President Donald Trump's suggestion that the conflict is nearing its end, progress in restoring oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remains limited. Markets are now looking for substantial progress, such as the restoration of energy flows and clearer disinflation, to unwind war-driven stress across the global economy.
QCP Capital notes that a ceasefire extension alone is no longer sufficient, and traders should focus on oil prices as signs of normalization are likely to emerge in energy markets first. The decline in Bitcoin and Ether's 30-day implied volatility indexes suggests traders expect significant progress soon.
Meanwhile, Solana and DOGE may experience increased volatility due to rising demand for leveraged exposure. In traditional markets, the MOVE index has declined to 65%, reversing the war-led spike to 115% in March, which is bullish for risk assets. The stability in the US bond market helps ease credit and financial conditions.