As bitcoin appeared poised to break through the $80,000 barrier, macroeconomic uncertainty has reemerged as a significant obstacle. A recent classified briefing by the Pentagon to U.S. lawmakers highlighted the potential for prolonged elevated oil prices due to the challenges of clearing mines in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil supply route.
This warning suggests that high energy costs could persist, limiting the Federal Reserve's ability to reduce interest rates and potentially negatively impacting risk assets like bitcoin. The sensitivity of bitcoin to interest rates and global liquidity, rather than real economic activity, exacerbates these risks. Furthermore, increasing costs for essential items could deter investors from allocating capital to speculative assets. These concerns are reflected in market trends, with WTI crude prices rising to around $95 and government bond yields increasing across major economies.
Despite sustained demand for U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs, some analysts advise caution, pointing out that the recent price rally lacks broad support in the spot market and may be driven primarily by demand in the perpetual futures market. The market capitalization of the largest dollar-pegged stablecoin, USDT, has reached a record high, while speculation in certain tokens is intensifying.
The ratio of bitcoin's price to gold has been rising, with the potential for a bullish crossover in moving averages, suggesting continued outperformance of bitcoin relative to gold.