As bitcoin appeared poised to break through the $80,000 threshold, macroeconomic uncertainty has resurfaced. A recent Pentagon briefing to U.S. lawmakers warned that clearing mines in the Strait of Hormuz could take at least six months and that gasoline and oil prices may remain high until the U.S.-Iran conflict is resolved. This could lead to persistent inflation, limiting the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates and negatively impacting risk assets like bitcoin.
Rising energy costs could also reduce investor appetite for speculative assets. Market indicators such as WTI crude and government bond yields are already reflecting these risks. Despite sustained demand for U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs, some analysts urge caution, citing the rally's lack of broad-based support in the spot market and warning of potential correction risks if traders start taking profits.
The market capitalization of the largest dollar-pegged stablecoin, USDT, has reached a record high, while speculation in other tokens is increasing. The ratio of bitcoin's price to gold has been rising, with the 50-day moving average potentially crossing above the 100-day average, indicating a bullish shift in momentum.