The recent surge in Bitcoin's price, driven by the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, is losing momentum as investors seek concrete results. Despite a brief rise above $76,000, the cryptocurrency's price has fallen back, repeating the choppy pattern seen on Tuesday. This stall follows a 10% increase, largely fueled by the ceasefire announcement.
However, with President Donald Trump suggesting the conflict is nearing its end, progress in restoring oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remains limited. Markets are now looking for substantial progress, such as the resumption of energy flows and a decrease in crude premia, to alleviate war-driven stress on the global economy.
QCP Capital notes that 'a ceasefire extension alone is no longer enough,' and traders should focus on oil prices for signs of normalization. The decline in Bitcoin and Ether's 30-day implied volatility indexes indicates that traders expect significant progress soon.
Meanwhile, Solana and DOGE may experience increased volatility due to rising demand for leveraged exposure. In traditional markets, the MOVE index has decreased to 65%, reversing the war-led spike in March, which is bullish for risk assets. The stability in the U.S.
bond market helps ease credit and financial conditions.