Bitcoin Faces Short-Term Pressure Amid Tightening Liquidity, According to Hilbert Group CIO

According to Russell Thompson, Chief Investment Officer at Hilbert Group, global liquidity is poised to deteriorate sharply, which could weigh on bitcoin and risk assets in the near term, even if the geopolitical situation in Iran is resolved quickly. Thompson notes that while the rollout of the reserve maturity program has stabilized liquidity conditions in some areas, a broader tightening of 20-25% is looming, which could have a significant impact on bitcoin. In a report published last week, Thompson stated that he does not believe risk assets will rally sustainably without external support, even with a swift resolution to the Iran situation. Thompson expects US policymakers to respond with measures such as reforming the supplementary leverage ratio, drawing down the Treasury General Account, and implementing rate cuts under a potential new Fed chair. The performance of bitcoin over the past six months has been marked by high volatility, with a shift from exuberance to a more fragile, macro-driven market. After reaching an all-time high above $126,000 in October 2025, bitcoin experienced a sustained decline, falling to around $63,000 by February 2026, a drop of approximately 50% from its peak. Currently, bitcoin is trading around $75,600, significantly off its peak but no longer in freefall. The last six months have seen a full cycle, from peak euphoria to a deep correction, and now a tentative stabilization phase, driven by macro liquidity, policy expectations, and investor positioning. Advances in crypto regulation could also provide support, with Thompson anticipating legal clarity on key measures before the summer recess and a faster-than-expected expansion of the Fed's balance sheet as disinflationary pressures build. Thompson argues that higher oil prices could ultimately weigh on growth, while a softening labor market and emerging stress in private credit may add to the disinflationary backdrop. Markets remain overly focused on the Federal Reserve as the primary source of liquidity, but Thompson notes that the US Treasury has significant capacity to inject funds into both the real economy and financial markets. With Treasury leadership experienced in deploying such tools, he expects a more proactive approach, resulting in short-term pressure on bitcoin but improving conditions over the medium term. Thompson expects bitcoin to be 'significantly higher' by year-end as liquidity dynamics evolve, and even in a more protracted scenario, he sees liquidity bottoming around 2027, a timeline that could coincide with fresh all-time highs.