Bitcoin Surpasses $75,000 as Iran Ceasefire Negotiations Advance and Equities Rally Gains Momentum

Following a surge in diplomatic efforts, Bitcoin has reclaimed its position above $75,000. The cryptocurrency experienced a 1.5% increase over 24 hours and a 1.7% increase over the week, prompted by Iran's confirmation of its attendance at a second round of ceasefire talks in Pakistan. Concurrently, Ether rose by 1.2% to $2,310, XRP gained 1.3% to $1.43, and BNB climbed 1.5% to $630. Solana, however, lagged behind with a modest 0.9% increase and a 1.1% decline over the week. The MSCI All Country World Index resumed its upward trend, rising 0.1% as Asian equities led the charge, with the regional tech index advancing 2.4%. Brent crude prices fell 0.7% to $94.81 per barrel, while gold and silver decreased by 0.6% and 1%, respectively. The two-week ceasefire is set to expire on Wednesday, with Trump indicating that an extension is unlikely. This deadline has become a focal point for market activity. The Strait of Hormuz witnessed an attempt by three vessels to transit through the waterway, despite the presence of U.S. and Iranian blockades, marking the first test of whether the passage will be opened prior to a deal being signed. Throughout this cycle, Bitcoin has trailed behind equities, with the MSCI ACWI experiencing an 11-day rally, while Bitcoin has been rebuilding from below $74,000 to just above $75,000. This lag can be attributed, in part, to structural factors. Bitcoin perpetual futures funding rates have remained negative for approximately 46 consecutive days, according to Bloomberg data, representing the longest such period since the collapse of FTX in late 2022. Net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs reached $996.4 million last week, while Ethereum spot ETFs attracted $275.8 million. Research firm Kaiko noted that a break above $76,000 could pave the way for a surge towards $85,000. On the mining front, public mining companies sold a record 32,000 BTC in the first quarter, exceeding the total sold in all of 2025 and surpassing the 20,000 BTC dumped after the Terra collapse in Q2 2022. Bitcoin's mining difficulty decreased by 2.43% to 135.59 trillion at the latest adjustment, while the network hashrate recovered from approximately 978 exahashes per second to 992 EH/s this month, according to Glassnode. Traders are closely watching whether Bitcoin will break through $76,000 in response to progress in Pakistan talks, which could trigger a short squeeze, or decline below $74,000 if the ceasefire deadline expires without a deal. A more profound signal lies in the mining data, which suggests that production economics remain constrained despite the price recovery, and any sustained rally above $80,000 would need to absorb continued treasury selling from miners.