Crypto Market Awaits New Developments After U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Ends

The crypto market's Friday rally is on uncertain ground as the week begins. The initially announced reopening of the Strait of Hormuz led to a decrease in oil prices and an increase in risk assets, including bitcoin and the broader crypto market. However, this development was short-lived, as the reopening was reversed over the weekend with Iran targeting ships attempting to pass through and the U.S. seizing an Iranian tanker. As the ceasefire is set to expire mid-week, traders are closely watching to see if the current risk-on trend can withstand potential renewed energy shocks. A key technical level to monitor is whether bitcoin can hold its ETF cost basis near $74,000. According to Luke Nolan, a senior research associate for ETH at CoinShares, the continuation of the current trend depends on bitcoin's ability to decisively hold above this $74,000 threshold. Nolan noted, 'With the Hormuz reopening, oil prices have dropped, and equities have rebounded to all-time highs, pulling crypto up with them. The follow-through now hinges on BTC holding above its ETF cost basis (~$74k), confirming the risk-on rotation visible in flows.' A decisive hold above $74,000, combined with a fourth consecutive day of positive ETF inflows as the ceasefire deadline approaches, would support the rotation thesis. Conversely, a break below this level would likely introduce volatility back into the sector.