The recent surge in Bitcoin's price, driven by the US-Iran ceasefire, is losing momentum as investors seek concrete results. The cryptocurrency's price briefly surpassed $76,000 before falling back, repeating the choppy pattern from Tuesday.
This stagnation follows a 10% increase, primarily fueled by the ceasefire news. Despite ongoing optimism and President Trump's suggestion that the conflict is nearing its end, negotiations to restore oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have seen limited progress. Markets are now looking for substantial advancements, such as the restoration of energy flows and a decrease in crude premia, to alleviate war-driven stress on the global economy.
QCP Capital notes that a ceasefire extension alone is insufficient, and traders should focus on oil prices for signs of normalization. The decline in Bitcoin and Ether's 30-day implied volatility indexes suggests traders expect significant progress soon. Meanwhile, Solana and DOGE may experience increased volatility due to rising demand for leveraged exposure.
In traditional markets, the MOVE index has decreased, indicating a bullish outlook for risk assets. The stability in the US bond market is expected to ease credit and financial conditions. The chart of Bitcoin's hourly price action since March 31 reveals a steady upward trajectory, but a developing double-top pattern may signal exhaustion in bullish momentum.
If the price dips below $73,300, a deeper decline to $70,000 is possible, while a sustained move above $76,000 could lead to a rally to $88,000.