Crypto Market Awaits New Developments After U.S.-Iran Ceasefire and Tesla Earnings

The crypto market starts the new week on uncertain ground following a rally on Friday. The initial announcement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz led to a decrease in oil prices and an increase in risk assets, including bitcoin and the broader crypto market. However, the situation took a turn when Iran fired at ships attempting to pass through the strait and the U.S. seized an Iranian tanker, leading to renewed tensions. As the ceasefire is set to end mid-week, traders are watching to see if the current risk-on rotation can withstand potential new energy shocks. A crucial technical level to watch is whether bitcoin can hold its ETF cost basis near $74,000. According to Luke Nolan, a senior research associate at CoinShares, the follow-through depends on bitcoin maintaining its position above this level. Nolan stated, "The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz led to lower oil prices and higher equities, which in turn pulled the crypto market higher. The next step hinges on whether BTC can decisively hold above its ETF cost basis, around $74,000, confirming the risk-on rotation seen in flows." If bitcoin can hold above $74,000 as the ceasefire deadline approaches, combined with a fourth consecutive day of positive ETF inflows, it would support the rotation thesis. Conversely, a break below this level could lead to increased volatility in the sector.