A Simple Bitcoin Indicator Has Successfully Predicted Every Bear Market Bottom Since 2015, But It Has Yet to Flash

One notable aspect of bitcoin, currently trading at $77,519.01, is the existence of a straightforward indicator that has consistently signaled major market bottoms since 2015. Despite its simplicity, comprising only two lines on the price chart representing the 50-week and 100-week moving averages, this indicator has proven remarkably effective. The 50-week average typically exceeds the 100-week average, reflecting bitcoin's long-term upward trend. However, during periods of extreme fear and relentless selling, the 50-week average dips below the 100-week average, marking a bear market signal. This crossover has occurred three times in bitcoin's history, coinciding with the end of bear markets and significant price bottoms that have not been revisited. The indicator has been a contrary signal, marking the end of downturns rather than their continuation. The three bearish crossovers, in April 2015, February 2019, and September 2022, each occurred near the bottoming phase, followed by substantial rallies. As of April 17, the crossover has not happened, suggesting the bear market may still be intact and could worsen before finding a bottom, making the recent price bounce likely a temporary recovery rather than the start of a new bull market.