The recent surge in Bitcoin's price, driven by the US-Iran ceasefire, is losing momentum as investors seek concrete results. The cryptocurrency's price briefly exceeded $76,000 before retreating, mirroring the choppy pattern seen on Tuesday. This stall follows a 10% increase, primarily fueled by the ceasefire news from last week.
Despite ongoing optimism and President Donald Trump's suggestion that the conflict is nearing its end, progress in restoring oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remains limited. According to QCP Capital, one of the world's largest digital asset market makers, 'a ceasefire extension alone is no longer sufficient; markets require tangible progress, such as restored energy flows, reduced crude premia, and clearer disinflation.' Traders should monitor oil prices, as signs of normalization are likely to emerge in energy markets first. The decline in Bitcoin and Ether's 30-day implied volatility indexes suggests traders expect significant progress soon. Meanwhile, Solana (SOL) and DOGE may experience increased volatility due to rising demand for leveraged exposure.
Alex Kuptsikevich, FxPro's chief market analyst, noted that Solana has outperformed the market over the last day but failed to consolidate above the $105 level. In traditional markets, the MOVE index has declined to 65%, reversing the war-led spike to 115% in March, which is bullish for risk assets. The US bond market's stability helps ease credit and financial conditions.