A Simple Bitcoin Indicator Has Successfully Predicted Every Bear Market Bottom Since 2015, But Remains Inactive

Notably, beneath the daily price fluctuations and macroeconomic headlines, a remarkably straightforward indicator has accurately predicted every major bitcoin market bottom since 2015. However, to the disappointment of bullish investors, this signal has not been triggered yet, implying that the broader bear market may not be over and the recent price rebound to $75,000 from $65,000 could be a short-term recovery. This indicator involves two simple moving averages on the price chart, representing bitcoin's average price over the past 50 and 100 weeks, which typically show near-term and long-term trends in bitcoin's price. When the 50-week average falls below the 100-week average, it is known as a bear market signal, which has occurred three times in bitcoin's history, coinciding with the end of a bear market and marking major price bottoms that have not been revisited since. These instances include April 2015, February 2019, and September 2022, each occurring near the bottoming phase and followed by significant rallies. As of April 17, the crossover has not happened, with bitcoin declining sharply from its October record high to around $75,000, and the two averages moving closer together, but the 50-week average still holding above the 100-week average, suggesting that the broader bear market may still be intact and could worsen before finding a bottom.