The recent surge in Bitcoin's price, driven by the US-Iran ceasefire, is losing steam as investors seek concrete progress in resolving the conflict. Despite a brief spike above $76,000, the cryptocurrency's price has fallen back, repeating the choppy pattern seen earlier in the week.
This stall follows a 10% increase, primarily fueled by the ceasefire news from the previous week. However, with President Donald Trump suggesting the conflict is nearing its end, progress in restoring oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remains limited. Markets are now looking for substantial progress, such as the resumption of energy flows and a decrease in crude premia, to alleviate war-driven stress on the global economy. QCP Capital notes that a ceasefire extension alone is insufficient, and traders should focus on signs of normalization in energy markets, such as oil prices.
The decline in Bitcoin and Ether's 30-day implied volatility indexes indicates that traders expect significant progress soon. Meanwhile, Solana and DOGE may experience increased volatility due to rising demand for leveraged exposure. In traditional markets, the MOVE index has declined, reversing the war-led spike, which is bullish for risk assets. The stability in the US bond market helps ease credit and financial conditions, making it essential for traders to stay alert.
The Bitcoin price chart shows a steady upward trajectory since March 31, but the developing double-top pattern signals potential exhaustion in bullish momentum. If the price dips below $73,300, it may lead to a deeper decline, while a sustained move above $76,000 could strengthen the case for a rally.