Crypto Market Awaits New Developments as U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Nears End

The crypto market enters the new week on uncertain ground after a rally on Friday. The initially announced reopening of the Strait of Hormuz led to a decrease in oil prices and an increase in risk assets, including bitcoin and the broader crypto market. However, this reopening was short-lived, as Iran fired at ships attempting to pass on Saturday and the U.S. seized an Iranian tanker on Sunday. As the ceasefire is set to expire mid-week, traders are watching to see if the recent risk-on rotation can withstand a potential energy crisis. A crucial technical level to monitor is whether bitcoin can maintain its ETF cost basis near $74,000. According to Luke Nolan, senior ETH research associate at CoinShares, the continuation of the rally hinges on bitcoin's ability to hold above this level. Nolan noted, 'The reopening of Hormuz led to a decrease in oil prices and an increase in equities, which in turn pulled crypto higher. The follow-through now depends on BTC holding above its ETF cost basis (~$74k), confirming the risk-on rotation visible in flows.' A decisive hold above $74,000, combined with a fourth consecutive day of positive ETF inflows, would support the rotation thesis. Conversely, a break below this level could introduce volatility into the sector.