Bitcoin's Gains from Ceasefire News Begin to Lose Momentum as Investors Await Tangible Progress

The recent surge in Bitcoin's price, driven by the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, is starting to lose steam as markets seek concrete evidence of progress. After briefly surpassing $76,000, the cryptocurrency's price has fallen back, repeating the choppy pattern seen on Tuesday. This stall comes after a 10% increase, largely fueled by the ceasefire announcement. Despite ongoing optimism and suggestions from President Donald Trump that the conflict is nearing its end, negotiations to restore oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have seen limited progress. QCP Capital notes that 'a ceasefire extension alone is no longer sufficient; markets require tangible progress such as restored energy flows and clearer disinflation.' Traders should monitor oil prices closely, as signs of normalization are likely to emerge in energy markets first. The decline in Bitcoin and Ether's 30-day implied volatility indexes suggests traders expect significant progress soon. Meanwhile, Solana and DOGE may experience increased volatility due to rising demand for leveraged exposure. According to Alex Kuptsikevich, Solana's attempt to bounce off an important long-term support line has failed to consolidate above the $105 level. The MOVE index, which measures U.S. Treasury note volatility, has declined to 65%, reversing the war-led spike and indicating a bullish trend for risk assets. The chart of Bitcoin's hourly price action since March 31 shows a steady upward trajectory but also indicates a potential double-top pattern, signaling exhaustion in bullish momentum. If the price dips below $73,300, it could lead to a deeper decline to $70,000, while a sustained move above $76,000 could strengthen the case for a rally to $88,000.