The price of Bitcoin is currently trading with a positive trend above the $75,000 threshold, a level previously identified by CoinDesk as essential for bulls to maintain control. However, market observers are advising caution, emphasizing the need for prices to remain above this level through Wednesday, when the US-Iran ceasefire is set to expire. Analysts at Marex noted that the market must consider two possible paths: the extension and de-escalation of the conflict, or renewed escalation and increased oil prices, which could significantly impact global equity markets.
The question remains whether Bitcoin will continue to demonstrate resilience, as it did during the March conflict, or if it will come under pressure alongside the broader market. As of now, no Iranian delegation has departed for talks in Pakistan, and President Donald Trump has warned of a major escalation if the ceasefire ends without a deal. Additionally, the nomination hearing for Kevin Warsh, a known 'inflation hawk,' as Federal Reserve chair is scheduled for Tuesday, and his remarks could potentially act as a catalyst for market movement. Major cryptocurrencies such as Ether, Solana, and XRP have seen modest gains of less than 2% over the past 24 hours, underperforming Bitcoin, while smaller tokens like XLM and TON have risen by over 5%.
The CoinDesk Memecoin Index has also seen an increase of over 3%. Notably, the DeFi Select Index added 2%, despite the recent hack of KelpDAO, which saw the attacker drain rsETH, a widely used liquid restaking token. Decentralized lender Aave has been significantly impacted, with the total value of crypto assets locked on its platform falling to $16 billion, a decline of nearly $10 billion. Aave's native token, AAVE, has declined 18% to $93 since the hack, with open interest in futures tied to the token reaching a record high, potentially indicating increased volatility ahead.