Crypto Market Awaits Outcome of US-Iran Ceasefire, Tesla Earnings

The crypto market enters the new week on uncertain ground following Friday's rally. The announcement of the Strait of Hormuz's reopening led to a decrease in oil prices and an increase in risk assets, including bitcoin and the broader crypto market. However, the situation reversed on Saturday when Iran targeted ships attempting to pass through, and the US seized an Iranian tanker on Sunday. As the ceasefire is set to expire mid-week, traders are watching to see if the risk-on trend can withstand a potential energy shock. A crucial technical level to monitor is whether bitcoin can maintain its ETF cost basis near $74,000, according to Luke Nolan, senior ETH research associate at CoinShares. Nolan stated, 'The follow-through now hinges on BTC decisively holding above its ETF cost basis (~$74k), which would confirm the risk-on rotation already visible in flows.' If bitcoin holds above $74,000 as the ceasefire deadline approaches, paired with a fourth consecutive session of positive ETF inflows, it would support the rotation thesis. Conversely, a break below this level could introduce volatility into the sector.