Bitcoin Surpasses $75,000 as Iran Ceasefire Discussions Advance and Equity Markets Rebound

Bitcoin has regained its position above $75,000 as the market anticipates a potential diplomatic solution. The cryptocurrency saw a 1.5% increase over 24 hours and a 1.7% increase over the week, following Iran's confirmation of its participation in a second round of ceasefire talks in Pakistan. Other notable cryptocurrencies, such as Ether, XRP, and BNB, also experienced gains, while Solana trailed behind with a 0.9% increase. The MSCI All Country World Index resumed its upward trend, rising 0.1% as Asian equities led the charge, with the regional tech index advancing 2.4%. Meanwhile, Brent crude prices fell 0.7% to $94.81 per barrel, gold decreased 0.6% to approximately $4,800, and silver dropped 1% to $78.90. The value of treasuries and the dollar remained relatively stable. As the two-week ceasefire deadline approaches on Wednesday evening, Washington time, markets are closely watching the situation, with Trump stating that he is unlikely to extend the ceasefire. Three vessels attempted to transit through the Strait of Hormuz early on Tuesday, despite the ongoing U.S. and Iranian blockades, marking the first test of whether the waterway will reopen before a deal is signed. Throughout this cycle, Bitcoin has lagged behind equities, with the MSCI ACWI experiencing an 11-day rally, while Bitcoin has been rebuilding from below $74,000 to just above $75,000. Part of this lag can be attributed to structural factors, including negative funding rates on Bitcoin perpetual futures, which have remained negative for approximately 46 consecutive days. Net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs rose to $996.4 million last week, while Ethereum spot ETFs took in $275.8 million. According to research firm Kaiko, a break above $76,000 could pave the way for a rise to $85,000. On the mining side, public mining companies sold a record 32,000 BTC in the first quarter, exceeding the amount sold in all of 2025 and surpassing the 20,000 BTC dumped after the Terra collapse in Q2 2022. Bitcoin's mining difficulty fell 2.43% to 135.59 trillion at the latest adjustment, while the network hashrate recovered from roughly 978 exahashes per second to 992 EH/s this month. Traders are closely watching whether Bitcoin will break $76,000 on the back of progress in Pakistan talks, potentially triggering a short squeeze, or slide back below $74,000 if the Wednesday deadline expires without a deal. A deeper signal lies in the mining data, which suggests that production economics remain under pressure despite the price recovery, and any sustained rally above $80,000 would need to absorb continued treasury selling from miners.