Bitcoin Faces Short-Term Pressure Amid Tightening Liquidity, According to Hilbert Group CIO

According to Russell Thompson, chief investment officer at Hilbert Group, a significant deterioration in global liquidity is imminent, which could hinder the performance of risk assets and bitcoin, even if the geopolitical situation in Iran improves. Despite the recent stabilization of liquidity conditions in certain areas of the financial sector following the introduction of the reserve maturity program, Thompson predicts a broader tightening of 20-25%, which could pose a substantial challenge for bitcoin in the near term. Thompson stated, 'Even with a swift resolution in Iran, I don't think risk assets will experience a sustained rally without external support.' He expects U.S. policymakers to intervene with measures such as reforming the supplementary leverage ratio, reducing the Treasury General Account, and implementing rate cuts under a potential new Fed chair. The supplementary leverage ratio is a banking regulation that dictates the amount of capital large banks must hold against their total leverage, while the Treasury General Account is the U.S. Treasury's primary cash account at the Federal Reserve. When the Treasury draws down the TGA, it effectively injects liquidity into the financial system, whereas building the TGA drains liquidity. Over the past six months, bitcoin's performance has been marked by volatility, shifting from late-2025 exuberance to a more fragile, macro-driven market. After reaching an all-time high above $126,000 in October 2025, bitcoin experienced a sustained decline through the end of the year and into early 2026, with prices falling to around $63,000 by February, a drop of approximately 50% from its peak. This period was characterized by weaker demand, exchange-traded fund outflows, and a more risk-averse macro backdrop, with BTC underperforming equities in some instances. Currently, bitcoin is trading around $75,600, significantly off its peak but no longer in freefall. The last six months have seen a full cycle, from peak euphoria to a deep correction and now a tentative stabilization phase, with macro liquidity, policy expectations, and investor positioning driving the market. Advances in crypto regulation could also provide support, with Thompson anticipating legal clarity on key measures before the summer recess and a faster-than-expected expansion of the Fed's balance sheet as disinflationary pressures build. Higher oil prices could ultimately weigh on growth, while a softening labor market and emerging stress in private credit may add to the disinflationary backdrop. Thompson argues that markets are overly focused on the Federal Reserve as the primary source of liquidity, but the U.S. Treasury has significant capacity to inject funds into both the real economy and financial markets. With Treasury leadership experienced in deploying such tools, he expects a more proactive approach, resulting in short-term pressure on bitcoin but improving conditions over the medium term. Thompson predicts that bitcoin will be 'significantly higher' by year-end as liquidity dynamics evolve, and even in a more protracted scenario, he sees liquidity bottoming around 2027, a timeline that could coincide with fresh all-time highs.