Bitcoin Likely to Face Short-Term Pressure Amid Tightening Liquidity, According to Hilbert Group CIO

A sharp decline in global liquidity is anticipated by Russell Thompson, CIO at Hilbert Group, who believes that even a swift resolution to the Iran conflict may not be enough to sustain a rally in risk assets without policy intervention. Following the introduction of the reserve maturity program, liquidity conditions have stabilized in certain areas of the financial sector, but Thompson expects a broader tightening of 20-25%, which could hinder bitcoin's performance in the near term. Thompson predicts that U.S. policymakers will respond with measures such as reforming the supplementary leverage ratio, reducing the Treasury General Account, and implementing rate cuts under a potential new Fed chair. Bitcoin has experienced significant volatility over the past six months, shifting from a state of exuberance to a more fragile, macro-driven market. After reaching an all-time high in October 2025, bitcoin entered a prolonged decline, falling to around $63,000 by February 2026. The cryptocurrency is currently trading at approximately $75,600, significantly off its peak but no longer in decline. Advances in crypto regulation and a faster-than-expected expansion of the Fed's balance sheet could provide support for bitcoin. Thompson anticipates that higher oil prices could weigh on growth, while a softening labor market and emerging stress in private credit may contribute to disinflationary pressures. He expects the U.S. Treasury to take a more proactive approach to injecting funds into the economy and financial markets, ultimately leading to improving conditions for bitcoin over the medium term. Thompson predicts that bitcoin will be 'significantly higher' by the end of the year as liquidity dynamics evolve, and even in a more protracted scenario, he sees liquidity bottoming out around 2027, potentially coinciding with fresh all-time highs.