Wintermute's head of policy, Ron Hammond, has expressed cautious optimism about the prospects of the Crypto Clarity Act, estimating its chances of passage this year at around 30%. This assessment is based on the complexities of the legislative process, which is advancing but at an uneven pace.
The Clarity Act aims to establish regulatory frameworks for the crypto market in the US, including the oversight of digital assets by the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Hammond's prediction is broadly in line with other market signals, such as a recent Punchbowl survey of lobbyists and staffers, which put the odds at 26%, and the prediction market Kalshi, which has been hovering around even odds. Despite the uncertainty surrounding the bill's trajectory, Hammond sees incremental progress, with lawmakers pushing to move the bill through committee and some aiming for a vote as early as April 20. However, he cautioned that such timelines have been fluid for months.
The passage of the Clarity Act is widely regarded as a crucial step towards institutional adoption of crypto, as it would provide clear rules on which digital assets are securities versus commodities and define how they can be traded, custodied, and regulated in the US. The current fragmented and uncertain framework has kept many large asset managers, banks, and pension funds on the sidelines due to legal and compliance risks.
A comprehensive market structure law would reduce this ambiguity, giving institutions the confidence to scale their exposure, launch new products, and integrate crypto more fully into traditional financial systems. However, significant hurdles remain, particularly around the issue of whether stablecoins should offer yield, with traditional financial institutions being the biggest obstacle. According to Hammond, negotiations have been stuck, with banks refusing to give way, despite attempts by various parties to find a solution. The dispute has already derailed at least one compromise, and expectations for a new version are tempered.
The resistance from banks is shaping the politics around the bill, particularly for Democrats, who are navigating a difficult balancing act due to unresolved concerns around decentralized finance and anti-money laundering compliance. Additional political headwinds could emerge in the coming months, potentially complicating Democratic support. Despite the friction, Hammond believes the bill still has a viable path forward, with progress in committee and continued negotiations potentially keeping it alive into midyear, when political incentives may shift. For Wintermute, the stakes are high, as the firm is expanding its US footprint and growing its New York team, reflecting a broader industry commitment to the US market under a more favorable regulatory environment.
The outcome of the Clarity Act is all the more consequential, and while Hammond sees 'light at the end of the tunnel,' he emphasizes that passage in 2026 will require breakthroughs that have so far proved elusive.