The head of policy at crypto market maker Wintermute, Ron Hammond, has expressed a cautious view regarding the passage of the Crypto Clarity Act this year, estimating its chances at around 30%. This outlook comes despite signs of progress in Washington, with Hammond pointing to the many moving parts in the legislative process, including political friction and uneven advancements.
The Clarity Act seeks to establish clear regulations for crypto market structures in the U.S., including how the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission oversee digital assets. Hammond's estimate aligns with other market signals, such as a recent Punchbowl survey and the prediction market Kalshi, which have also underscored the uncertainty surrounding the bill's trajectory. Despite this uncertainty, Hammond sees incremental progress, with lawmakers pushing for the bill to move through committee, potentially leading to a vote as early as April.
However, he cautions that such timelines have been fluid for months. The passage of the Clarity Act is seen as crucial for institutional adoption of crypto, as it would provide clear rules on which digital assets are securities versus commodities and how they can be traded, custodied, and regulated in the U.S.
Currently, the fragmented and uncertain framework has kept many large asset managers, banks, and pension funds on the sidelines due to legal and compliance risks. A comprehensive market structure law would reduce this ambiguity, giving institutions the confidence to scale their exposure to crypto, launch new products, and integrate crypto more fully into traditional financial systems. However, significant hurdles remain, particularly from traditional financial institutions, which are opposed to stablecoins offering yield. According to Hammond, negotiations around this issue have been stuck, with attempts from various sides, including Coinbase and the White House, failing to find a solution that satisfies both sides.
The dispute has already derailed at least one compromise, with a new version of the proposed yield deal now circulating, though expectations are tempered. Hammond notes that this resistance is shaping the politics around the bill, especially for Democrats, who are navigating a difficult balancing act due to crypto industry funding and unresolved concerns around decentralized finance and anti-money laundering compliance. Additional political headwinds could emerge in the coming months, potentially complicating Democratic support.
Despite these challenges, Hammond believes the bill still has a viable path forward, with progress in committee and continued negotiations potentially keeping it alive into midyear, when political incentives may shift. For Wintermute, which is expanding its U.S.
footprint and growing its New York team, the stakes are high, reflecting a broader industry commitment to the U.S. market under what firms see as a more favorable regulatory environment. The outcome of the Clarity Act is thus all the more consequential, with Hammond emphasizing that passage in 2026 will require breakthroughs that have so far proved elusive.