According to Ron Hammond, head of policy at crypto market maker Wintermute, the Crypto Clarity bill has a cautious 30% chance of passing this year. Despite signs of progress, Hammond points to the numerous challenges, including political friction, uneven legislative progress, and unresolved issues surrounding the regulation of digital assets in the US.
The Clarity Act aims to establish clear guidelines for the oversight of digital assets by the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Hammond's estimate is in line with other market signals, such as a recent Punchbowl survey and prediction market Kalshi. Lawmakers are pushing to move the bill through committee, with some aiming for a vote as early as April 20.
However, Hammond cautions that timelines have been fluid for months. The passage of the Clarity Act is seen as crucial for institutional adoption of crypto, as it would provide clear rules on which digital assets are securities versus commodities and define how they can be traded and regulated.
The current fragmented framework has kept many large asset managers, banks, and pension funds on the sidelines due to legal and compliance risks. Hammond identifies traditional financial institutions, particularly banks, as a major obstacle, especially regarding the issue of whether stablecoins should offer yield. Negotiations remain stuck, with a recent proposed 'yield deal' failing to satisfy either side.
The dispute has significant implications for the politics surrounding the bill, particularly for Democrats who have accepted crypto industry funding. Hammond believes the bill still has a viable path forward, but progress will depend on breakthroughs that have so far proved elusive. Wintermute, one of the largest crypto market makers globally, is expanding its US footprint and growing its New York team, making the outcome of the Clarity Act highly consequential for the firm.