Ron Hammond, head of policy at the crypto market maker Wintermute, has expressed a cautious outlook on the Crypto Clarity Act, assigning a 30% chance of passage this year. Hammond cited the numerous moving parts in the legislative process, which, despite advancing, remains uneven. The Clarity Act aims to establish rules for crypto market structure regulation in the U.S., including clarifying the roles of the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in overseeing digital assets.
Hammond's estimate is in line with other signals in the market, such as a recent Punchbowl survey of lobbyists and staffers that put the odds at 26%, and the prediction market Kalshi, which has hovered just above even odds. The uncertainty surrounding the bill's trajectory is underscored by the spread in these estimates. Hammond, however, sees incremental progress, with lawmakers pushing to move the bill through committee, potentially aiming for a vote as early as April 20.
He cautioned, though, that such timelines have been fluid for months. The passage of the Clarity Act is widely regarded as crucial for institutional adoption of crypto, as it would provide clear rules on which digital assets are securities versus commodities and define how they can be traded, custodied, and regulated in the U.S. The current fragmented framework has kept many large asset managers, banks, and pension funds on the sidelines due to legal and compliance risks. A comprehensive market structure law would reduce ambiguity, giving institutions the confidence to scale their exposure, launch new products, and integrate crypto more fully into traditional financial systems.
At the heart of the hurdles facing the bill are traditional financial institutions, particularly the issue of whether stablecoins should offer yield. According to Hammond, banks remain the biggest obstacle, with negotiations stuck despite attempts from various sides, including Coinbase, the White House, and the bill's drafters, to find a solution. The dispute has already derailed at least one compromise, with a proposed 'yield deal' failing to satisfy either side.
A new version is now circulating, but expectations are tempered. Hammond noted that the resistance from banks is shaping the politics around the bill, especially for Democrats, who face a difficult balancing act, particularly those who have accepted crypto industry funding. Additional political headwinds could emerge, including scrutiny around former President Donald Trump's crypto-related dealings, which could complicate Democratic support if it intensifies around June. Despite these challenges, Hammond believes the bill still has a viable path forward, with progress in committee and continued negotiations potentially keeping it alive into midyear, when political incentives may shift.
Wintermute, one of the largest crypto market makers globally, is expanding its U.S. footprint and growing its New York team, reflecting a broader industry commitment to the U.S.
market under what is seen as a more favorable regulatory environment. The outcome of the Clarity Act is consequential for Wintermute and the industry, with Hammond emphasizing that passage in 2026 will require breakthroughs that have so far proved elusive.