A Simple Bitcoin Indicator Has Successfully Predicted Every Bear Market Bottom Since 2015, But Remains Inactive

Despite the daily price fluctuations and macroeconomic headlines, a straightforward indicator has consistently predicted major market bottoms for bitcoin since 2015. This indicator, which has not yet been triggered, implies that the broader bear market may not be over and the recent price surge to $75,000 may be a short-term recovery. The indicator in question involves two lines on the price chart, representing bitcoin's average price over the past 50 and 100 weeks, acting as simple moving averages that show near-term and long-term trends. When the 50-week average falls below the 100-week average, it is known as a bear market signal, which has occurred three times in bitcoin's history, coinciding with the end of a bear market and marking major price bottoms. These crossovers have happened in April 2015, February 2019, and September 2022, each occurring near the bottoming phase and followed by significant bull runs. As of April 17, the crossover has not occurred, indicating that the 50-week average still holds above the 100-week average, suggesting the bear market may still be intact and could worsen before finding a bottom. While historical patterns do not guarantee future outcomes, they can provide valuable insights, and if US equities continue to advance, institutional demand for Bitcoin ETFs could strengthen, potentially supporting a price rally.