Despite a 7% price surge since Sunday, bitcoin's recovery has stalled near $72,000 due to key risks, including the upcoming US inflation report and US-Iran truce talks. Institutions are adopting a cautious approach in the options market, chasing potential gains through call options while also seeking downside protection. According to QCP Capital, there is demand for the $45 call expiring in May for BlackRock's spot bitcoin ETF, indicating expectations of a price increase.
Similarly, the $80,000 call has emerged as a popular bet on Deribit. However, the demand for puts, which offer protection against declines, persists, as reflected in the negative options skew across all time frames. The US consumer price index for March is expected to show a significant increase in annualized inflation, primarily driven by rising energy prices.
This could lead to market volatility, particularly if the core figure exceeds the estimated 2.7% annualized rate. The meeting between Iranian and US delegates in Pakistan may also impact financial market stability, with a potential end to the war and normalization of oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz likely to accelerate bitcoin's rally. The ICE BofA US Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index, which reflects volatility in US Treasury futures, has shown a decrease in turbulence, indicating a positive signal for crypto bulls.