Ron Hammond, the head of policy at Wintermute, a leading crypto market maker, has expressed cautious optimism about the Crypto Clarity Act, estimating its chances of passing in 2026 at around 30%. This assessment is influenced by the complex legislative process, which, despite advancing, is doing so unevenly. The Clarity Act aims to establish clear regulations around crypto market structure in the U.S., including how the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) can oversee digital assets. Hammond's estimate aligns with other market signals, such as a recent Punchbowl survey that put the odds at 26%, and the prediction market Kalshi, which has odds slightly above even.
This uncertainty underscores the challenges the bill faces. Hammond, who is set to speak at CoinDesk's Consensus Miami conference, acknowledges incremental progress, with lawmakers pushing for the bill to move through committee, possibly aiming for a vote as early as April 20. However, he notes that such timelines have been fluid for months. The passage of the Clarity Act is seen as crucial for institutional adoption of crypto, as it would provide clear rules on which digital assets are securities versus commodities and how they can be traded, custodied, and regulated.
Currently, the fragmented and uncertain framework keeps many large asset managers, banks, and pension funds on the sidelines due to legal and compliance risks. A comprehensive market structure law would reduce ambiguity, giving institutions the confidence to increase their exposure to crypto, launch new products, and integrate crypto into traditional financial systems. However, significant hurdles remain, particularly from traditional financial institutions, especially regarding whether stablecoins should offer yield. Negotiations have been stuck, with banks resisting compromise, despite efforts from various sides, including Coinbase and the White House.
The political landscape is also complex, with Democrats facing challenges, especially those who have accepted crypto industry funding, as they navigate issues around decentralized finance (DeFi) and anti-money laundering compliance. Additional political headwinds could emerge, potentially complicating Democratic support.
Despite these challenges, Hammond believes the bill has a narrow path forward, with progress in committee and continued negotiations potentially keeping it alive into mid-year, when political incentives may shift. For Wintermute, which is expanding its U.S. footprint and growing its New York team, the outcome of the Clarity Act is highly consequential. While Hammond sees progress, he emphasizes that passage will require breakthroughs that have so far been elusive, hence his estimate of a 30% chance of the bill passing in 2026.