Ron Hammond, Wintermute's head of policy, has expressed cautious optimism about the Crypto Clarity Act, estimating its chances of passage this year at around 30%. Despite signs of progress, Hammond points to the complex legislative process and uneven progress as major obstacles. The Clarity Act aims to establish clear regulations for the crypto market structure in the US, including the oversight of digital assets by the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Hammond's estimate is broadly in line with other market signals, including a recent Punchbowl survey and prediction market Kalshi. However, he notes that the bill's trajectory remains uncertain, with lawmakers pushing to move it through committee and some aiming for a vote as early as April 20. The passage of the Clarity Act is seen as a key factor in unlocking institutional adoption of crypto, as it would provide clear rules around which digital assets are securities versus commodities and define how they can be traded and regulated. The current fragmented framework has kept many large asset managers, banks, and pension funds on the sidelines due to legal and compliance risks.

Hammond identifies traditional financial institutions, particularly banks, as the biggest obstacle to the bill's passage, citing their opposition to stablecoins offering yield. Negotiations have been stuck, with a recent proposed 'yield deal' failing to satisfy either side. The dispute has already derailed at least one compromise, and expectations for a new version are tempered.

Hammond also notes that the bill's politics are complex, particularly for Democrats who have accepted crypto industry funding and are navigating a difficult balancing act. Additional political headwinds could emerge in the coming months, including scrutiny around former President Donald Trump's crypto-related dealings. Despite the challenges, Hammond believes the bill still has a viable path forward, with progress in committee and continued negotiations potentially keeping it alive into midyear. Wintermute, one of the largest crypto market makers globally, has a significant stake in the bill's outcome, with the firm expanding its US footprint and growing its New York team.

Hammond emphasizes that the outcome of the Clarity Act is crucial, with passage in 2026 requiring breakthroughs that have so far proved elusive.